First Warning: Wettest weather since October due late this week

AUSTIN (KXAN) — While the focus early in the week will be the freeze concerns for most of Central Texas on Monday morning, we’re looking ahead to the middle and end of the week for our wettest weather for more than six weeks.

A slow moving storm system approaching from the west will gradually bring rain chances eastward through the end of the work week. While changes can be expected, this storm has been consistently trending wetter the last few days.

It hasn’t rained in Austin in more than 10 days and we haven’t had more than an inch of rain fall in one day at Camp Mabry since October 26.

As things stand now the rain will be slow to progress eastward with rain chances mostly confined to the Hill Country on Wednesday. Rain spreads a little more on Thursday and by Friday most of us should be in for a widespread soaking. Saturday should be a drying day with some lingering morning showers wrapping up into the afternoon.

Rain chances this week
Rain chances this week

Rainfall amounts

Exactly how much rain we get will depend on a few factors including the eastward motion of the storm system as a whole and whether we can get many thunderstorms to enhance rainfall intensity.

Many of our extended weather computer models are on-board with the potential for 1″ or more of rainfall.

The European Computer Model generally gives most of us 1.5″-2.5″ by the time we dry out on Saturday.

European Model Rainfall Forecast
European Model Rainfall Forecast

The American Computer Model (GFS) is even wetter with 2-3″ for most of us.

GFS 7 DAY RAIN

One of our better, newer and very accurate models known as the National Blend of Models (NBM) brings Austin 1.5″+ rainfall by next weekend.

National Blend of Models (NBM) rainfall forecast
National Blend of Models (NBM) rainfall forecast

The official National Weather Service forecast leans on the wetter side with 2-3 inches for most of Central Texas, but some lower amounts north and east.

NWS 7 Day Rainfall Forecast
NWS 7 Day Rainfall Forecast

Weather threats

This far out the only weather threat that stands out is the potential for some localized flooding.

Most of Central Texas is still in severe drought and should be able to handle *most* of this incoming rain, but if it comes too quickly we could see problems.

The movement of this storm will be from the west moving southeast, which could generally put the Hill Country in the jackpot zone for the most rain. Parts of the Hill Country are in a marginal (level one out of four) for flash flooding on Friday.

Flash Flood Risk Friday (WPC)
Flash Flood Risk Friday (WPC)

Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we track any changes to this storm system.

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