AUSTIN (KXAN) — With less than two weeks until meteorological fall is over, NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center updated their winter forecast.
Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1 and lasts through the end of February.
Previous outlooks, issued mid-October, pointed to reasonably good odds of a wetter-than-normal season ahead thanks to a strong El Niño.
This updated forecast continues to lean wetter than average, but not by as much.
Updated winter outlook
Almost all of Central Texas continues to be in the “wetter than normal” category for the winter precipitation forecast. Parts of the far western corner of our viewing area have dropped into the “equal chances” category with no clear signal on precipitation. Previous outlooks had us well within the “leaning wetter” category. See how things changed a bit lower in this blog.
No significant change in the temperature forecast. We continue to be in the “equal chances” category indicating no clear signal on temperatures for most of us, but areas northwest of Austin lean more toward that “near normal” category.
How the outlooks changed
Use the slider below to see how the winter forecast changed from mid-October (original release) to the mid-November update. Slide right to see the original and slide left to reveal the latest winter forecast updated in November.
Of course, while we’re still leaning toward a wetter than normal winter, lower confidence in that happening is not good given the widespread drought we continue to deal with in Central Texas.
NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also sent out their December forecast. From a rain perspective, December appears near normal.
The temperature forecast also appears near normal with roughly equal chances of warm, cold or average.
What’s normal in December?
December is our second coldest month, on average, with only January being colder in a typical year. December averages 7.6 days with measurable precipitation of 0.01″ or more.
Average high: 63.9º
Dec. 1 average high: 67º
Dec. 31 average high: 62º
Average low: 43.4º
Dec. 1 average low: 46º
Dec. 31 average low: 42º
Average rain: 2.72″ (Fifth driest month)
Average snow: 0″
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we continue to track any adjustments to your winter outlook.